Adaptive methods of short-term forecast of the physical volumes in the region of the Southern Customs Administration operation
Abstract
Adaptive methods of short-term forecast of the physical volumes in the region of the Southern Customs Administration operation
Incoming article date: 10.12.2017The article deals with the construction of the exponential smoothing model and seasonal model of the time series on monthly weight data (kg) on imports of commodity groups 07 «Vegetables and certain edible root crops and tuber crops» from 01.2014 up to 09.2017 in the region of the Southern Customs Administration operation. According to the derived model the forecast has been made for October, November and December of 2017 by the weight of the product group 07 in the region of the Southern Customs Administration operation.
Keywords: econometrics, time series, adaptive methods, exponential moving average, modeling, seasonality coefficient, forecasting