The article is devoted to one of the key issues of the theory of international relations and geopolitical science – the definition of the power of the state. At the same time, the state is considered as the main (structure-forming) element of the global geopolitical space. Starting from the fact of the real inequality of states in the system of international relations and ran-king them by weight and influence in world affairs, the author analyzes two main approaches to assessing the strength of the state: attributive and behavioral. The article distinguishes between the concepts of "the potential of the country" and «the power of the state»; justifies the need to use a more precise than the generally accepted concept – «the total power of the state» (TPS). The subject of special attention is the question of the possibility of measu-ring the TPS, in connection with which the factors that determine it are analyzed in detail. In this connection, the "tangible" (measurable) and «intangible» (immutable) factors of TPS are distinguished and their interrelation is considered. Based on these considerations, the author offers his own «formula» of the TPS.

Keywords: global geopolitical space, the state, ranking of states, the potential of the country, the power of the state, the total power of the state (TPS), components of the TPS, the measure-ment of power (as a problem), «tangible» (measurable) and «intangible»

This work completes a series of articles about the peculiarities of the analysis of the situations in the geo-politically unstable regions of the modern world. The article discusses the possibility of forecasting the pro-cessses in the unstable areas (regions) of the contemporary world. It analyses the difficulties of the implementation of the forecasting procedure connected with the multifactor combination of the geopolitical processes in a turbulent environment. Under consideration are both traditional and innovative methods of forecasting processes in weakly structured, unstable regions and limitrophe areas. Special attention is given to the scenario method, «rand-scenario» in particular. It is being emphasized that in modern conditions the transition to the paradigm of "unsustainable development" as well as full attention to the analysis and forecasting systems with nonlinear dynamics is of great importance.

Keywords: the geopolitically unstable areas (regions), forecasting, forsythe, complex forsythe, events and chains of events, the projection of “the launching codes”, trend, scenario method, «rand-scenario», drivers, jokers, non-linear dynamics, destructors, synerge

This work represents the third article within the cycle devoted to the peculiarities of the analysis of the situations in geopolitically unstable zones of the modern world. This time the author focuses on the second stage of the mentioned scientific procedure. He assumes the analysis of the dynamics of such zones (regions) as multifactorial combinatorics, with the dominance of the conflict nature of interstate relations and the key role (in some cases) of non-regional players. An attempt is made to present unstable regions and the same kind of limitrophic zones as a combination and overlapping of the force fields of a different nature.

Keywords: modern world, geopolitically unstable zones, separation belts, limitrophic zones, interstate relations, multilateral and vertically organized, conflictness, asymmetrical conflits, international mediation, force fields

This work starts a series of the articles devoted to the analysis of the processes taking place in poorly structured and geopolitically unstable zones (regions) of the contemporary world. Considering the analysis of the specific situations as a special scientific procedure, the author looks at length at the instrumentation which is supposed to be used by a researcher of a relevant profile. The author proves the thesis of the inadmissibility of contrasting exact and non-exact methods in the investigation of geopolitical problems in the unstable and turbulent environment. Special attention is paid to revealing the possibilities of various forms of modelling which is more extensively used in the regional geopolitics. The analysis of the specific situations is interpreted by the author as a complex multi-level work consisting of two phases.

Keywords: contemporary world, geopolitically unstable zones and regions, analysis of the specific situations (ASS), situational analysis, historical descriptive methods in ASS, geographical and geopolitical mapping, methods of formalization and quantification

This work presents the second article within the series devoted to the peculiarities of the analysis of the situations in geopolitically unstable zones (regions) of the contemporary world. The author focuses on the first stage of this scientific procedure. It includes the determination of the geographical parameters of the region under investigation (or the problematic zone of the world), the study of the topography of the involved political powers and compiling their basic characteristics as well as the identification of the overall “architecture” the studied site.

Keywords: system analysis, situational analysis,“place-action” (pad), “local” states, the status and viability of the states, the geopolitical taxonomy of the region, the state’s power, the potential of the state, national interests, axis of national interests

  The article is devoted to the problem of the research of geopolitical processes on the world regions’ scale under present-day conditions. The article substantiates the necessity of their analysis with the help of the cognitive approach as an effective means of cognition of the interconnections and interrelationships within the complicated systems. With that aim in view the specifics and the stages of the cognitive modeling are given thorough analysis in the article. This type of modeling is adapted to the analysis of geopolitical dynamics on the regional/sub regional level taking into consideration its aptitudes to make prognostic scenarios of the development of the situation. The possibilities of the cognitive modeling of geopolitical processes are illustrated on the example of the situation in three sub regions constituting one (big) the Black Sea – Caspian region.

Keywords: World regions, geopolitical processes, modeling of the complicated systems, modeling of the geopolitical processes, cognitive modeling, the program’s system of the cognitive modeling, the Black Sea – Caspian Region, the Black Sea sub region, the Caucasus

  The article analyses the problem of applying the scientific method of modeling to the investigation of geopolitical processes taking place at the world regional/sub regional “sites”. Preceding from three possible approaches to studying geopolitical dynamics under glocalisation, that is description, formalization and quantification, the author analyses three structural levels of geopolitical modeling. With this purpose in view he analyses the peculiarities and such constituents of its modification as ordinary, conceptual-graphical (cognitive) and mathematical modeling. Special attention is given to conceptual-graphical modeling and its specific language. Admitting the possibilities of using precise mathematical methods and procedures in geopolitics, the author takes into consideration their scantiness. In this respect the validity of mathematical methods and procedures must be provided with quality expert evaluation. The author's message is that the use of heuristic options of modeling in regional geopolitics may serve as the pledge to growing science capacity of this field of knowledge.

Keywords: geopolitics, world region/sub region, glocalization, situation analysis, mapping, map, modeling, modeling of the geopolitical processes, usual (simple) geopolitical modeling, conceptual-graphical (cognitive) mapping, graph