Predictive assessment of the technical object is based on the determination of the possible values of the controlled parameters in the projected time period and is carried out during the operation of the object. Calculations are usually done in the background and it is important to estimate the minimum sample of parameter values that can be used for prediction. The article shows the possibility of using the Hurst indicator to determine the persistence of the time series of the object parameter and presents a scheme for estimating the minimum sample size, which can be used to reliably predict the parameter change using time series forecasting methods.

Keywords: time series, Hurst exponent, forecast, estimate, trend, stability, persistence, value, parameter, object, data array

Stable functioning of the organizational structure under external influence, volatile external environment, internal changes and restrictions determined by the ability to forecast the head of the emergence and development of crisis situations and effectively influence them. We propose a model of the possible schemes for generating a crisis of development and the achievement of objectives of scenarios in crisis situations. A set of actions, which is defined in the modeling process, provides many options for development of the situation. It is also determined by various ways and means to achieve this goal in a dynamically changing conditions of existence. The main components of the model are the objects that characterize the organizational structure and the factors influencing them. Rules and restrictions that form the domain of the specific behaviors of the organizational structure and the external environment, are also components of the model. The components characterizing the result of modeling the behavior of the organizational structure, objectives and criteria are their achievement. The paper presents the structure and mechanisms of formation properties of the base object, on which are formed various types of facilities involved in the modeling process. A part of the rules on the nature of their activities and use in the simulation. The structure and mechanisms of formation properties of the base object used to implement flexible modeling algorithms. Algorithms should take into account the peculiarities of consideration of the organizational structure of management tasks in conditions of instability, multifactorial effects and dynamically changing rules and constraints on resources and allowed actions.

Keywords: model, base object, organizational structure, situation, limitation, impact, factor, target, structure, process

In complex technical systems, such as, for example, gas supply companies engaged in the use, processing and transportation of gas, improving the quality of functioning is largely due to the fact how effectively be able to use resources management when abnormal and emergency situations. Implement management quick and timely action controller and related services to a large extent depend on the quality of information available on the state of the system, keeping in mind those of its features that can adequately classify and identify the situation adequately assess the state of the system and choose the most optimal conditions prevailing in framework for action. The modern development of information technologies and means of automation and computerization can solve the problems associated with providing efficient and trouble-free operation of a complex technical system, timely response to dangerous situations, control of the consumption of resources, taking into account a comprehensive plan parametric, functional, topological and other characteristics controlled system and its objects in the interaction and relationships, creating static and dynamic images of the object, allowing combined with modeling processes to implement current and forecast assessment of the state of the system with sufficient accuracy and reliability. The paper presents a model of quality assessment of complex technical systems. Evaluation of the status of objects and the system as a whole by means of intermediate scales numerical evaluation as qualitative estimates are associated with their quantitative equivalents, allowing the algorithm to construct a formal transfer. State system objects viewed through the prism of determining compliance parameters of the object of one of the areas of the state, taking into account the possible modes of operation of the system. This data is the variable quality of the order given on the set of equivalence relations items, which leads to the qualitative nature of the assessment.

Keywords: qualitative assessment of the state of the system, object model, rating scale, discriminating sign, algorithm, parameter, variable. criticality, importance, significance

To achieve high accuracy of measurement of liquid flow rate using the hot-wire gauges are encouraged to use multi-segment method of spatial characteristics of the transformation. The method is based on the nonlinear three-dimensional elements. Model the spatial characteristics of the transformation is maximally adapted to the peculiarities of the conversion function of the primary transmitter. Model repeats its spatial form with the non-linearity, zero drift, the influence of external factors, including temperature. This provides a low error rate calculation of flow. Study of the effectiveness of the method was based on experimental data obtained during the calibration at different temperatures. Maximum reduced measurement error does not exceed ~ 0.45% at an arbitrary temperature, recorded during measurement.

Keywords: thermoanemometric meter spatial multi segment conversion characteristic, the error rate of fluid flow, the approximation method of least squares

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