The paper proposes a mathematical model for evaluating the effectiveness of measures aimed at anticipating competitors in the market. The model is based on the theory of Markov random processes. It allows you to assess the probability of pre-emption in the implementation of commercial projects by one party over the other in a competitive environment. The dependences of probabilities of pre-emption of the parties from time to time. It is shown that these probabilities depend on the average project execution time of each competitor and have a maximum characterizing the most effective lead time. The obtained theoretical dependences allow us to analyze the possible outcomes of competition in market conditions.

Keywords: competition, market relations, advance, efficiency, commercial project, mathematical modeling, conflict of parties, random process, probability of state, time dependence

In the article, the authors present the results of studies related to the effect of partial failures (PF) on the reliability characteristics of the system, determined through the probability of continuous operation over the interregional period under the conditions of continued operation after PF. The computational model is based on the assumption that the process of continuing to function after a spacecraft can be considered as redundancy by substitution, when the reserve appears capable of performing post-failure functions, but with some change in the reliability characteristics. The entire work interval is divided into separate sections inside, which the technical system operates with new reliability characteristics, with the sequential occurrence of several PF. A model with an exponential law of distribution of probabilities of partial failures is considered. It is believed that testing the device of the entire interregional period without a complete failure can be characterized as the product of the probabilities of the absence of a complete failure on the considered time interval, the absence of the occurrence of destructive external influences exceeding the critical values, the error-free processing of the program by the expert system and the absence of errors in the operator's actions. The results of the illustrative calculation are presented and conclusions are made.

Keywords: partial failure, redundancy, indicators of reliability of working out in the interregional period, calculated ratios for assessing reliability in case of partial failure

An important aspect in the creation of information and training systems for training and advanced training of technological personnel of industrial enterprises is the development and implementation of mathematical models of the studied technological processes at the stage of forming algorithmic and software of such systems. The considered information and training system is associated with the blending and casting of aluminum alloys of various grades. The system contains the necessary amount of theoretical information that describes the basic principles of aluminum production using the most well-known technological operations aimed at the formation of the required metal alloys with a given chemical composition. The information-training system is based on a mathematical model of the technological process, in the development and description of which both the principles of informational similarity and the physicochemical laws are used using experimental-statistical modeling methods. The structure of the information and training system consists of structural units that interact logically with each other, which allow the formation and solving of various technological problems of melting aluminum melting in smelting furnaces. Each unit has a certain meaning and performs the required amount of load. The system consists of seven important and weighty structural units. The interactions of the studied production object with the control actions and external disturbances make it possible to form the initial parameters of the task, which in turn become the basis for user interaction with the training system. The user interface of the system allows visualizing the aspects of technological change that are taking place and storing the student’s corrective actions for further analysis in the computer’s memory. If necessary, the system can provide the user with the opportunity to use the potential of an interactive assistant, in the event that he is difficult or unable to determine the weight of the next corrective adjustment. The interactive assistant based on the current parameters of the technological problem is able to determine and suggest to the user the use of the most optimal control action for the best solution of the problem. Thus, when introducing these principles of training, the system should show its effectiveness by reducing the final cost of the finished metal products, by reducing errors in technological operations and empirical calculations of the masses of the components used, increasing its consumer qualities.

Keywords: mathematical model, model-simulator, technological problem, system structure, physico-chemical patterns, chemical composition, control actions, control mode

The article describes a trend-seasonal adaptive model of the time series of the import volume of the Republic of Kazakhstan according to the quarter data in the period from 2013 to 2018. According to the obtained model, the forecast of the imports volume in the value terms for the first quarter of 2019has been made.

Keywords: Republic of Kazakhstan, import, multiplicative model, exponential smoothing, adaptive model, forecasting, trend equation

The possibility of using associative tools to solve the problem of multidimensional risk assessment is substantiated: “language of associations” for the formalized presentation of risk events and risks in the form of information objects in an associative environment; associative environment for the implementation of such assessment procedures. The approach to modeling the processes of multidimensional risk assessment based on the associative environment with its implementation on the FPGA is substantiated.

Keywords: associative environment, multidimensional risk assessment

This article discusses the use of regression analysis in violation of the assumption of the normal distribution of observations. The analysis of the following work illustrated that the theoretical distribution of observations may differ significantly from practical research if normal law is rejected. To solve this problem, which is one of the central ones in statistical analysis, stable estimation methods were studied and applied. Based on the results obtained, a software product was developed that implements this statistical method.

Keywords: Normal law distribution of observations, stable estimation methods, M-estimates, software implementation

The work is based on experimental data obtained during the pilot survey of students of DSTU at the end of 2018. Cognitive components of perception of propaganda were revealed by direct survey, students were asked to characterize the fairness of the policy pursued by the state and the reliability of both Pro-government and opposition political propaganda in General. At the same time, domestic and foreign policies were considered separately. The correlation analysis carried out on these six indicators showed their significant mutual influence. To identify the integral characteristics behind this correlation, we used the method of hierarchy analysis, previously proposed by us such a variety as hierarchical factor analysis. It was found that at the second level, the primary six indicators are reduced to two factors, the indices of perception of missile defense and illegal propaganda. At the third level, the latter two form an integral factor characterizing the cognitive component as a whole. For each level, the priorities of the underlying indicators relative to the upper one are calculated, and the matrices of paired comparisons, both primary characteristics and intermediate ones, are restored. In addition to the internal structure indicators, the paper presents external ones, such as the distribution of the obtained factors of the second and third levels by respondents.

Keywords: perception, propaganda Pro-government, opposition propaganda, questioning, cognitive attitudes, method of analysis of hierarchies, hierarchical factor analysis, indices of perception of Pro and illegal propaganda, integral index, distribution functions

Modern development of x-ray technology allows to conduct a detailed study of multiphoton processes of absorption and scattering of x-ray photon by deep and subvalent shells of molecular systems in a wide range of energies. The specifics of solving the problem of interaction of an x-ray photon with a multiatomic system requires the use of a single-center approach to the calculation of the electronic States of molecules. The main disadvantage of this approach is a decrease in the accuracy of the calculation of spectroscopic quantities with limited consideration of the terms of the single-center decomposition of the molecular orbital. The paper studies the effect of accounting for higher harmonics of single-center molecular orbital decomposition on the calculation of the energy characteristics of molecular systems. The analysis of the parameters of the single-center decomposition of the functions of the nuclear ligand, depending on its charge. The criteria for inclusion of higher harmonics of single-center decomposition of atomic ligand functions in the molecular orbital are determined. The calculation of energy characteristics is performed on the example of diatomic molecules HF, LiF and BF. The selected series of molecules makes it possible to study the behavior of higher harmonics of the single-center decomposition of the molecular orbital depending on the growth of the atomic ligand charge.

Keywords: molecular orbital, single-center decomposition, higher harmonics, a nuclear ligand, the energy of the electronic state of a diatomic molecule

The article is devoted to the problem of theoretical research and development of perovskite-based solar cells to optimize their design and increase efficiency. The paper presents a numerical simulation of the transfer and accumulation of charge carriers in the planar p – i – n heterostructure of a solar cell. The simulation is based on a stationary physico-topological model based on the diffusion-drift system of semiconductor equations. The efficiency of solar cells for different perovskite film thickness was obtained. It has been established that the maximum efficiency of the optimized design of a solar cell is about 27% with a perovskite film thickness of 500-700 nm and a defect concentration in it of the order of 1012 cm-3.

Keywords: Numerical simulation, solar cell, perovskite, film thickness, defect concentration, current-voltage characteristic

The results of the analysis of the functional completeness of ten intelligent video Analytics systems are presented. It is shown how the video Analytics systems selected for comparison have similarities or differences in the criterion of functional completeness. The paper analyzes whether they contain the most typical video detectors and what additional video Analytics functions each of the compared systems has. It is shown how it is possible to estimate as far as functional completeness of this or that system corresponds to requirements of the user.

Keywords: intelligent video surveillance, video Analytics, specialized videodetector, intelligent analysis of video analysis of functional completeness, a formal analysis of the degree of similarity systems, a measure of similarity of Jacquard, Earl of superiority,

This article deals with the problem of determining the cost of renting real estate. The idea of minimizing the absolute error function using artificial neural networks is substantiated. Particular attention is paid to the process of determining the input data of the neural network. In particular, the problems of determining such parameters as the improvement of the region and premises. The article clarifies the features of determining the weight coefficients to determine the technical equipment of the room using a genetic algorithm. A model of neural network architecture is proposed. The model of change of weight coefficients is described. As a result, the model was tested on test data, and the model of data correction taking into account price dynamics was described.

Keywords: neural network, data mining, data analysis, real estate rental, regression, genetic algorithm, Informatics, machine learning, cost estimation, modeling, extrapolation

The paper considers an adaptive on-off regulator. A block diagram of this device is given, and the sequence of operation of the blocks is also described. Simulation modeling of various types of on-off regulators was carried out in order to identify their effectiveness.

Keywords: automation, adaptive regulation, regulators, simulation

The proposed article provides a generalized model of the hydraulic system of a drilling rig during the beginning of the introduction of the drilling tool into the ground. The oscillograms of the parameters of the motor in time are shown, obtained using a computational experiment in the Matlab program. Using this model, it is possible to estimate the transient processes of the hydraulic drive at the system design stage. The above formulas describe the parameters of the hydraulic system, determine the pressure at the pump outlet, the inlet to the throttled resistance and the input channel of the motor. Changing the input characteristics of the system allows you to monitor the behavior of the system in different situations and under different loads.

Keywords: mathematical model, hydraulic system of a drilling rig, work dynamics, transients

In This study posed the problem of simulating the cooling system of supercomputers with a heat pump on the reverse Stirling cycle by numerical modeling of heat transfer processes in the object under study. The article presents the results of numerical simulation of heat transfer processes in the cooling system of processors of supercomputers with a heat pump on the reverse Stirling cycle. A numerical model of the heat transfer process was investigated. Using the method of numerical simulation of the heat transfer process, the dependences of the temperature delta, thermal resistance and the fraction of losses of the heat pump of the cooling system are obtained. The dependence of the ratio of the stroke of the piston to the diameter of the piston H / D of the heat pump has been revealed, taking into account the loss of the thermal resistance of the liquid cooling circuits and the elements of the design of the heat pump.

Keywords: processor, heat flow, thermal resistance, Laplace equation, heat pump, heat exchange, Stirling backflow, cooling system

The article presents a detailed analysis of the structure of the model of management of the hematopoietic functional system of the body in various physiological situations, which activates the activity of a certain adaptive circuit that characterizes the functional state. The first state and adaptation to the contour of the functional hematopoietic system of the body included in the work are considered in detail. The structural equation of adaptation of the first contour is made. It is concluded that the equation of adaptation compiled for a hypothetical control model adaptation, in the actual state of Affairs raises a number of inconsistencies with the hypothetical implementation-related deviations from the ideal parameters of functioning: autonomic nervous system, internal environment, metabolic state, the processes of transmitting the control actions. All these deviations affect the observed realization of the set of blood form elements (RSBE).

Keywords: physiological model of functional hematopoietic system, the adaptive circuit, the space of external influences, categorical diagram, adaptation processes, gemondo-nuclear level, functino mapping, homomorphic mapping, the equation of adaptation

A program has been developed that allows to evaluate the adhesion of paint coatings by means of analyzing images of the surface of coatings with delamination’s from the substrate to be protected. The program is written in Kotlin using JavaFX platform and is focused on tests carried out by the method of lattice cuts within the conditions of paint and varnish production. Through the work the evaluation of the area of the coating detachment from the surface to be protected is being held and the obtained result is scored by points according to the method of lattice cuts. The use of the program does not require a large computing power of the computer and reduces the time for obtaining the calculating results for one sample from 20 minutes to 3 seconds.

Keywords: adhesion, lacquer coatings, notch method, Kotlin language, JavaFX

A finite-element analysis of the stress-strain state of the bank-protection structure of the type anchor bolveverk with various types of external force is performed. It has been established that the adopted geometrical parameters of the structure provide the required margin of safety and ensure the stable operation of the object in the entire range of design loads. Practical recommendations are formulated for adjusting the design structure of the bollard (biteng).

Keywords: finite-element method, stress-strain state, Ansys Mechanical, banked fastener type building, bollard

The article is devoted to modeling the operation of a piezoelectric generator (PEG) in the form of a round bimorph plate with two piezoactive layers and an inertial mass. The considered PEG can serve as an element of the energy storage device, as a source of electrical energy obtained from the vibrations of structural elements and machines. The bending axisymmetric oscillations of a composite elastic and electroelastic body are considered in a linear formulation, taking into account the dissipation of mechanical and electrical energy. The problem is solved using the finite element method (FEM) in ACELAN. Statement of the problem simulates the fixation of PEG in a moving structure. A modal analysis of the device was carried out, the first frequencies of resonance, antiresonance, and electromechanical coupling coefficient were found. Next, the problem of forced harmonic oscillations at the first antiresonance frequency is solved and the output electric potential is determined. The dependences of the output characteristics of PEG on its geometrical parameters are constructed.

Keywords: piezoelectric generator, energy storage, electric potential, finite element method

The article shows the possibility of describing complex objects with parallel functioning components in the form of structures built on the basis of neural networks. The neural network is represented by an operator matrix, that is, a formal description that gives a universal way to solve many non-standard control problems. Matrix apparatus is shown to significantly improve the efficiency of the method compared to previously known. It is concluded that the representation of the neural network by the operator matrix provides a universal way to solve the problems of transport and information flows management; neuron-like systems based on such representation of the neuron are able to catch complex nonlinear relationships, self-improvement, learning in the process of use. Their use provides ample opportunities for finding and implementing effective solutions to the problems of management and control of flows

Keywords: graph, parallelism, transport and information flow, neural network, synaptic weight, predicate, activation function, operator matrix, neuron, complex systems

This paper presents a mathematical model of an electro-hydraulic vibratory exciter used for vibration testing of steel piles on coral reefs. Based on this model of electro-hydraulic vibrator, we have built characteristic curves to evaluate the stability of the system, the quality of the transition process, as well as parameters - amplitude, frequency. The research results are the scientific basis for design of electro-hydraulic vibratory exciter for vibration testing of steel piles in the coral foundation.

Keywords: vibration exciter, electro-hydraulic vibrator, frequency

On the basis of the mathematical apparatus of Queuing, a mathematical model for the diagnosis of the technical condition of vehicles with electronic control units. The developed mathematical model of vehicle diagnostics in the framework of discrete-event paradigm. Numerical experiments to assess the effectiveness of diagnostics are carried out.

Keywords: cars, electronic control unit, diagnostics, Queuing system, efficiency, operating costs

The article is devoted to the actual problem of increasing the complexity of user passwords in systems with remote access to increase their information security. It proposes a method based on the integrated application of the input characters of the password and the time intervals between them. In the article, using the inhibitor time network Petri, a model of a dynamic password setting process was constructed, on its basis the process of forming a reference image and user authentication is described. The above calculations of increasing the complexity of the password prove the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

Keywords: authentication, password, dynamic process, Petri net, complexity, password retrieval

The computer technology for precious metals examination by method of colorimetry aided with auxiliary chemical reaction is created and investigated. The essentially new practical and methodical novation allowing to shift some orders lower the bottom limit of a measuring range is offered, the theoretical basis for micro- and macroanalysis computer technology is established. Experimentally confirmed, that with the help of new technique it is possible to detect micro probes of silver, gold, platinum and palladium about 10-9 g. It is acceptable to use the proposed technology for quantitative estimation of other substances representing interest in this or that area of expertise.

Keywords: examination, macroanalysis, microanalysis, colorimetry, computer technologies

The article deals with the work of mechanical absorbers, where the working body is presented in the form of a rotating cylinder. The analysis of interaction of liquids and a working body in similar devices is made. The mutual influence of liquid layers and the action of the working body are considered. The estimation of the force factors of the dynamic layer entrained by the rotating cylinder is obtained. The study presented in the article will help in the preparation of engineering methods for calculating the operating and design parameters of devices.

Keywords: absorber, emulsion layer, capillary forces, emulsion, static meniscus region, capillary pressure, immiscible liquids, rotating cylinder, liquid, Navier-Stokes equation

The development of modern technology makes increasingly stringent requirements for materials, and improving the reliability and durability is an urgent task for many industries. One of the most important elements of the automatic coupling device of the car is the absorbing device. The parts included in it must meet high standards, be reliable and provide the necessary hardness and mechanical properties of the materials throughout the life cycle of the car. One of these parts included in the friction unit of the absorbing device is a movable plate. In the present work, an example of modernization of the absorbing apparatus through the use of modern methods of modeling and manufacturing of a fixed plate is given. The technical result is to reduce consumption of materials of the movable plate, and to simplify the manufacturing process of the plate by making it from rolled steel.

Keywords: Absorbing apparatus, modeling, mobile plate, energy consumption, friction unit, friction, wear resistance, reliability, durability