Monitoring group's political attitudes among students RSUCE was conducted in November - December 2012, as a continuation of the long-term research. Primary data were collected by means of the questionnaire survey conducted by the method of semantic differential. Osgud's classical questions are put in a basis of the questionnaire. Students were offered to estimate the relation to four types of political orders. Two real, local and Central orders. And two ideal orders: the perfect positive political order that the Respondent satisfied in all respects, and the perfect negative, completely not arranging the respondent. According to the obtained data the average semantic portraits characterizing group perception of two real and two ideal political orders were constructed. Group emotional perception was estimated according to the degree of closeness images of real orders to the images of the corresponding ideal constructs in the space of the primary signs and in the space of the identified factors. Linear approximation according to which level of emotional perception is proportional to half-difference of relative distances from an image of a real order to images of negative and positive orders respectively was used. It is received that for the end of 2012 the students RSUCE perceived both local and central political orders negatively, with levels of emotional perception rloc=-0,26 and rCentr=-0,39. The estimation of the confidence of these results was carried out. It was equal 0,8.

Keywords: questioning, semantic differential, political order, level of emotional perception, theory of an ideal point, linear approximation, confidence level

  The article is devoted to the problem of the research of geopolitical processes on the world regions’ scale under present-day conditions. The article substantiates the necessity of their analysis with the help of the cognitive approach as an effective means of cognition of the interconnections and interrelationships within the complicated systems. With that aim in view the specifics and the stages of the cognitive modeling are given thorough analysis in the article. This type of modeling is adapted to the analysis of geopolitical dynamics on the regional/sub regional level taking into consideration its aptitudes to make prognostic scenarios of the development of the situation. The possibilities of the cognitive modeling of geopolitical processes are illustrated on the example of the situation in three sub regions constituting one (big) the Black Sea – Caspian region.

Keywords: World regions, geopolitical processes, modeling of the complicated systems, modeling of the geopolitical processes, cognitive modeling, the program’s system of the cognitive modeling, the Black Sea – Caspian Region, the Black Sea sub region, the Caucasus

Results of the flight research spent in April - among students of RSUCE are brought May, 2012. The Main objective of research - definition of the emotional relation of students to local and central political orders. Primary data are received by questioning on a method of semantic differential. By the received results semantic portraits of four types of political usages (two ideal constructions and two above-stated real orders), relative distances in semantic space between images of these usages are defined. That has allowed to calculate levels of emotional perception of local and central political usages in linear approach.

Keywords: questioning, semantic differential, affective component, group installation, political order, level of emotional perception

  The paper presents an analysis of the data obtained as a result of questioning students RGSU in late 2011. The purpose of this study is to measure the level of political tension among the youth after the events of December 2011. 168 young people taken part in this research (men - 53% women - 47%). Age of the respondents - 17 to 19 years. The questionnaire included a subjective assessment of the following levels: participation in the political process, emotional involvement in these processes; comments of these processes, and economic prosperity, social security, life prospects. Revealed a low level of involvement of young people to the political process - 1.40 on average value. The level of emotional involvement in the political process - 2.15. The stable level of comments political processes in the family - 2.17. Received, the average level of economic prosperity and level of social security of students: 2.44 and 2.24. Assessment of life prospects is at a high level - 3.03. It is revealed, values of average all studied parameters at women are higher, than at men. Least a difference in an assessment of level of participation in political processes – 0,1. More differs the assessment of level of social security, the difference makes – 0,69. Thus, level of a relative deprivation among studied audience is low, and if will tension arise in student's group, first of all among men.

Keywords: a political tension, deprivation, group installation in relation to a political order, cognitive component, questionnaire, the descriptive statistics

  The research presents an analysis of the data obtained as a result of questioning students RGSU in Grozny in 2012. In the pilot study involved 320 respondents. (men - 70% women - 30%). The questionnaire included a subjective assessment of the following levels: participation in the political process, emotional involvement in these processes; comments of these processes, and economic prosperity, social security, life prospects. Research showed the stable average level of involvement of the young population to people processes in the Republic – 2,04 on a total average value. Level of  emotional involvement in the political process – 2,60. Level of comments political processes in the family – 2,30. Received, the average level of economic prosperity and level of social security of students. Assessment of life prospects is at a high level - 3.40. Female audience respondents give higher ratings than men, but the differences are insignificant. Observed lowering of assessments compared with studies of past years, but all parameters cognitive component relations of students to the political order are normal middle and high level. In general it shows a low level of deprivation investigated audience.

Keywords: a political tension, deprivation, group installation in relation to a political order, cognitive component, questionnaire, the descriptive statistics

Information about authors of issue №4 p.1 (2012)

Keywords: authors

The paper presents the results of research level of perception a political order among students of Grozny (GGNI) at the beginning of 2012. The questioning method was used. In total 320 respondents were interviewed, and captured the age group from 17 years to 20 years. On national structure the group was almost uniform (95,9% - Chechens). The main purpose of questioning - the definition of the emotional component of the group political installation on the classical method of semantic differential Charles Osgood. A comparative analysis was carried out of the averaged semantic level of emotional portraits and making real political order. It is revealed, the image of an order is in the Republic 45% closer to positive "ideal" construct in comparison with image of an order in Russia as a whole. It is received, by the beginning of 2012 perception level considerably decreased to normal value (in comparison with "incredibly positive" 2011). Thus small excess of perception of a political order in the Republic remained.

Keywords: a political order, a political tensions, semantic differential, factor analysis, the affective component, questioning

  Results of the flight research spent in student's RBSU environment in December, 2011 are presented. The method of semantic differential is put in a basis of questioning. Respondents were offered to estimate four types of a political order by using of 20 double modal seven-ball scales. Two "ideal" orders are as much as possible attractive order and as much as possible unattractive one. And two real orders are the political order existing in Rostov region and a political order in Russia as a whole. The estimation was spent in linear approach, and also in frameworks the early developed phenomenological model considering typical nonlinearity, which is probable for a considered case. It is received, that in the end of 2011 students were characterized by negative perception as political order in area (with level -0.7, a level was normalized from +1 to-1), so an order in Russia in whole (with level -0.77). Surfaces of the stationary states, allowing to detail dynamics of change of perception level are calculated. Comparative dynamics of behaviour of emotional perception level of real political orders from the end 2009 on the end 2011 is presented. 

Keywords: questioning, semantic differential, political order, emotional perception level, typical dependence, nonlinear approach, catastrophe theory, dynamics of change of perception

In the article the analysis of conflictogenic potential of the North Caucasus as one of the most troubled regions of modern Russia is presented. It is shown that the inertial scenario of its development realized in modern Russia with relief local specifics is distinctly noticeable in social dynamics of the North Caucasus as well.

Keywords: conflictogenic potential, development scenario, social dynamics, troubled region, the North Caucasus.

This article presents an agent-based computational model of civil violence. In the model we present variant of civil violence when central authority seeks to suppress decentralized rebellion. This model involves two categories of actors. ‘‘Agents’’ are members of the general population and may be actively rebellious or not. ‘‘Cops’’ are the forces of the central authority, who seek out and arrest actively rebellious agents. Both type of actors are having attributes and behavioral rules.

Keywords: Legitimacy, Grievance, Perceived Hardship, Risk Aversion, Jail, Neighborhood, Vision Radius, Salami Tacktics, Initial Density, Active Agent, Quiet Agent, Civil Violence, Visualization, Tension, Ripness Index.

The mathematical model formalizes the solution of a problem of optimum control and it is meaningful to minimization of number of regional extremist system (bandit underground) taking into account relative importance of parts making it at the restrictions caused by "will" of the state to fight against extremism and objective dynamics of number of groups of extremists, an ethnosociocultural protestnost defined by factors (protest potential of society). The task was solved by means of imitating modeling on a method of scenarios.

Keywords: Mathematical model, method of scenarios, extremism, dynamics of number of groups of extremists, problem region, North Caucasus.

It is shown that for research of difficult processes of social interaction at the present stage of development of system modeling hierarchical systems of cognitive models, cognitive architecture and the integrated systems of modeling are even more often used. With reference to these processes the system of models should reflect various abstractions of the description of structure, various aspects of her behavior, stages (iterations) of its evolution in the course of functioning and development. It is offered to consider architecture of set of models in a need context for the solution of a task at a concrete investigation phase.

Keywords: process of social interaction, research, modeling, modeling technologies, systems modeling.

The mathematical model formalizes the solution of a problem of optimum control and  the minimization of regional extremist system’s number (bandit underground) is meaningful taking into account the relative importance of its parts with the restrictions caused by "will" of the state to fight against extremism and the objective dynamics of the extremist groups number, defined by the ethno-and-sociocultural protest potential factors. The problem was solved by means of imitating modeling basing on scenarios method. The results of scenery modeling of republican bandit underground dynamics are obtained depending on different variants of the power influence, in conjunction with different options of republican community development. The results of modeling calculations on fixing of a range of scenarios of quantitative dynamics of separate groups layers of a republican bandit underground are given. The identification of modeling parameters according to scenarios is executed and interpretation of the received results and practical recommendations on optimization of combating regional terrorist underground is presented.

Keywords: Mathematical model, scenery modeling, extremism, bandit underground, dynamics of number of groups layers of extremists, problem region, North Caucasus.

The paper presents the results of the pilot study of perception of the political order of Rostov-on-Don on the end of 2011. The questioning method was used. In total 499 respondents were interviewed, and captured the age group from 18 years to 65 years. The purpose of questioning - the definition of the emotional component of the group political installation on the classical method of semantic differential Charles Osgood. A comparative analysis was carried out of the averaged semantic level of emotional portraits and making real political order. It is revealed the existing political order in Russia in general and the city of Rostov-on-Don, respondents were almost equally perceived negatively. It is shown the generalized probability perception of an order in Rostov-on-Don and in Russia will change at change of external conditions: at improvement of a situation will slowly increase, at situation deterioration the probability acceptance of an order will quicker decrease, up to zero and negative value.

Keywords: A political tension, semantic differential, factor analysis, the affective component, questioning.

Research is executed on materials of the pilot questioning, conducted in late 2011 among 825 respondents, covering a large part of the socio-territorial groups of the Rostov region. Questionnaires contained two questions blocks intended for assessment cognitive and emotional components of level of a political tension. The revealed levels of economic and social security appeared below an average (about 1.7 on a five-point scale). It contributes to the formation of relative deprivation, and as a consequence leads to increased political tensions. These conclusions are supported by the calculated levels of emotional perception of the political order. The perception of a political order in Rostov region is negative and is at level - 0,3337 on a scale, normalized from -1 (complete rejection of an order) to +1 (complete acceptance). It’s revealed also nonlinear dependence of level of emotional perception and a relative deprivation.

Keywords: a political tension, semantic differential, factor analysis, the affective component, cognitive component, the descriptive statistics, questioning.